Guangzhou (JLC), April 18, 2023 – JLC successfully wrapped up its 11th Oil Seminar in Singapore on April 17, with well-received presentations and in-depth discussions on the developments and trends of China’s oil industry.
Co-organized by Vortexa, the event delved into the changes, challenges and opportunities facing China’s oil markets. Presenters shared their latest insights and research findings, focusing on different aspects of the oil sector.
The room is packed with audience
Emma Li, a senior analyst at Vortexa, kicked off the meeting with a speech focusing on China’s evolving oil landscape amidst global energy transition. China’s refining sector emphasized “structure” over “scale”, and the independent refiners still faced challenges in feedstock sourcing amid escalated global geopolitical tensions, she said.
Emma Li gives a speech titled “China’s Evolving Oil Landscape: What Lies Ahead in 2024”
Victor Yang, Senior Analyst at JLC International, delivered a speech titled “Outlook for China’s Oil Demand and Supply”, which shed light on future trends of China’s oil industry.
China’s crude imports, throughput and apparent consumption will still grow in 2024-2028, but the growth rates will slow considerably, he said. Refining capacity is still on the rise, given that some large independent complexes will come on stream and some state-run refineries will complete their expansions in the next few years. The overall capacity – currently standing at about 19.06 million barrels per day (bpd) – is likely to touch 20 million bpd, a ceiling set by the government, in 2026.
Independent oil-to-chemicals complexes will gain more share in quota allocations for imported crude, although the overall quotas may remain largely stable in the coming years.
For refined oil products, Yang said the apparent consumption is likely to peak by 2027. Specifically, gasoline and jet fuel consumption are expected to peak by 2027, while diesel by 2026.
Export quotas are not expected to fluctuate much in the coming years, although the country’s 2024 quotas may grow about 1.7 million mt from a year ago. For exports, diesel and jet fuel outflows are likely to rise in 2024, while gasoline exports may shrink this year, Yang predicted.
Victor Yang shares his findings and forecasts
Xie Yu, Chief Editor at JLC International, shared her insights into China’s biofuel industry. China’s biofuel markets still showed great potential, although the world may have experienced a slowdown in green transition, she said.
China continued to boost biodiesel capacity, with the operable capacity reaching 5.66 million mt/yr as of December 2023. This came despite various investigations launched by EU countries on biodiesel from China.
Noting that China is now embracing vast opportunities in SAF, Yu mentioned that China will see another 100,000 mt/yr of SAF capacity coming online in 2024, based on the existing capacity of 200,000 mt/yr (as of March 2024).
In boosting the use of biodiesel, China has given the green light for 22 pilot projects, among them, 19 projects will be led by the local governments, and 3 by Chinese enterprises (CHIMBUSCO, Sinopec Fuel Oil and Shandong Hi-speed Group).
She predicted that domestic demand for biodiesel will move up on policy support, with bio-bunker becoming the primary growth driver, resulting in fiercer competition for UCO feedstocks.
Xie Yu shares her observations on China’s biodiesel industry
Serena Huang, Vortexa’s Head of APAC Analysis, gave a full review of the latest developments and trends in global oil markets. Her presentation covered various aspects including supply and demand, export flows and factors affecting freight rates. Through comprehensive data and charts, she delved into key aspects such as supply-demand dynamics and price fluctuations.
Serena Huang shared her insights on global oil trade
In addition, a panel discussion session was held following the excellent presentations. Wayne Tan from Bloomberg, Stefano Grasso from 8vantedge, Vandana Hari from Vanda Insights and Serena Huang shared heated discussions over the topic “Bull or Bear, Diverging Predictions of the 2024 Oil Market”.
A panel discussion among Serena Huang, Stefano Grasso, Vandana Hari and Wayne Tan
As a leading provider of market intelligence and pricing solutions for energy products and commodities in China, JLC will make continuous efforts to keep track of the latest trends in China’s oil and gas markets, remain dedicated to the industry and serve as a bridge to strengthen cooperation and promote win-win between China and the rest of the world.
