Guangzhou (JLC), April 24, 2023 – JLC and RBAC successfully concluded their LNG seminar themed “LNG Market Insights for Asia” in Singapore on April 23, together offering a panoramic view on different aspects of the LNG industry around the world.
Co-organized by RBAC Inc., a leading supplier of global and regional gas and LNG market simulation systems, the seminar delved into the global and Asia’s gas and LNG markets, with a special focus on China’s market fundamentals and future trends.
Participants listen attentively and respond positively to the presentations
Dr. Robert Brooks, Founder and CEO of RBAC, kicked off the meeting with a presentation covering the global gas and LNG outlook using RBAC’s G2M2 Market Simulator. The global LNG market is currently characterized by distinct trends including robust growth, diversification, modernization of tanker fleet, greener supply chain and coal-to-gas switching, Dr. Robert Brooks said.
The global LNG market is expected to increase from 400 million mt in 2023 to over 600 million mt in 2029, he noted. Global LNG peak is expected at 658 million mt in 2032, falling by about 7% to 613 million mt by 2050 and averaging 636 million mt between 2031 and 2050, he added.
Dr. Robert Brooks shares his insights into global LNG markets
David Zhou, Executive Vice President of JLC, delivered a speech entitled “Overview of China’s Natural Gas Market”, which shed light on China’s market fundamentals, consumption patterns and structure, as well as future trends.
David Zhou shares his observations on China’s gas industry
China’s gas consumption grew by 26.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) or 7.3% year on year to 391 bcm in 2023, in line with its annual GDP growth of 5.2% last year, David Zhou said. In 2024, the gas consumption is expected to rise by another 28.0 bcm, he added, as the country is now working hard to achieve its GDP growth target of around 5% this year and pushing for a green transition.
Last year, China saw strong growth in domestic gas production, piped natural gas (PNG) imports and LNG imports. Notably, China overtook Japan as the world’s top LNG importer in 2023, with LNG imports growing 12.6% year on year to 71.32 million mt (roughly 98.3 bcm).
Looking ahead, David Zhou predicted that China’s gas production, PNG imports and LNG imports will reach 243.4 bcm, 74.2 bcm and 108.3 bcm in 2024, growing by roughly 11 bcm, 7 bcm and 10 bcm from last year, respectively.
From a longer-term perspective, he predicted that China’s natural gas demand will probably peak around 2040.
Yang Jiaxin, a senior analyst of RBAC, delivered a speech themed “The Future Outlook of Asia – U.S. LNG Trade under Various Uncertainties”, which threw spotlight on China and U.S. market dynamics and trends in different scenarios.
Yang Jiaxin shares her findings and forecasts
China’s gas consumption may show various degree of growth in the coming ten years. In her “Base Case” scenario, China’s gas consumption may rise to over 620 bcm in 2035. The figure will be revised down to just above 500 bcm in 2035 in her “Low Demand” scenario, according to Yang Jiaxin.
Speaking of the Biden administration’s decision on pausing approvals for some new LNG projects, Yang Jiaxin said that a total of 41 million mt of capacity in the U.S. will be affected. There will be a significant reduction in LNG from the U.S. to Europe and India, she said.
In the Q&A session, participants and the presenters shared in-depth and heated discussions over the trends and dynamics in different markets.
The presenters answer questions from the audience
The seminar offered a platform for industry participants to communicate and explore business opportunities. JLC will continue to use its strength in digital and intelligent services to empower our customers and facilitate growth in the industry.
